Mfs Emerging Markets Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 6.96

EMLMX Fund  USD 5.59  0.01  0.18%   
Mfs Emerging's future price is the expected price of Mfs Emerging instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mfs Emerging Markets performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mfs Emerging Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Mfs Emerging Correlation, Mfs Emerging Hype Analysis, Mfs Emerging Volatility, Mfs Emerging History as well as Mfs Emerging Performance.
  
Please specify Mfs Emerging's target price for which you would like Mfs Emerging odds to be computed.

Mfs Emerging Target Price Odds to finish below 6.96

The tendency of Mfs Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 6.96  after 90 days
 5.59 90 days 6.96 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mfs Emerging to stay under $ 6.96  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Mfs Emerging Markets probability density function shows the probability of Mfs Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mfs Emerging Markets price to stay between its current price of $ 5.59  and $ 6.96  at the end of the 90-day period is about 80.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Mfs Emerging has a beta of 0.094 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Mfs Emerging average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mfs Emerging Markets will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mfs Emerging Markets has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Mfs Emerging Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mfs Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mfs Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.205.606.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.215.616.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.145.545.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.605.605.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mfs Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mfs Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mfs Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mfs Emerging Markets.

Mfs Emerging Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mfs Emerging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mfs Emerging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mfs Emerging Markets, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mfs Emerging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.09
σ
Overall volatility
0.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.37

Mfs Emerging Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mfs Emerging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mfs Emerging Markets can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mfs Emerging Markets generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund retains about 8.7% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

Mfs Emerging Technical Analysis

Mfs Emerging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mfs Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mfs Emerging Markets. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mfs Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mfs Emerging Predictive Forecast Models

Mfs Emerging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mfs Emerging's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mfs Emerging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mfs Emerging Markets

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mfs Emerging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mfs Emerging Markets help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mfs Emerging Markets generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund retains about 8.7% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

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When running Mfs Emerging's price analysis, check to measure Mfs Emerging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mfs Emerging is operating at the current time. Most of Mfs Emerging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mfs Emerging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mfs Emerging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mfs Emerging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Mfs Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mfs Emerging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mfs Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.