SANTANDER SMALL (Spain) Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 96.49

SS
ES0107987002 -- Spain Fund  

EUR 103.69  0.00  0.00%

SANTANDER SMALL probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of SANTANDER SMALL CAPS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.

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SANTANDER SMALL Target Price Odds to finish below 96.49

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 96.49  or more in 30 days
 103.69 30 days 96.49 
about 10.27
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of SANTANDER SMALL to drop to € 96.49  or more in 30 days from now is about 10.27 (This SANTANDER SMALL CAPS probability density function shows the probability of SANTANDER SMALL Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of SANTANDER SMALL CAPS price to stay between € 96.49  and its current price of €103.69 at the end of the 30-day period is about 9.42 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, SANTANDER SMALL has beta of 0.0895 suggesting as returns on market go up, SANTANDER SMALL average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding SANTANDER SMALL CAPS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. SANTANDER SMALL CAPS is significantly underperforming DOW.
 SANTANDER SMALL Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=-0.81
β
Beta against DOW=0.09
σ
Overall volatility
=17.44
Ir
Information ratio =-0.08

SANTANDER SMALL Alerts and Suggestions

SANTANDER SMALL CAPS is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
SANTANDER SMALL CAPS generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
SANTANDER SMALL CAPS has high historical volatility and very poor performance
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