Etsy Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 55.44685

ETSY Stock  USD 67.99  2.19  3.33%   
Etsy's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Etsy Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Etsy based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Etsy Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $68.0 is a CALL option contract on Etsy's common stock with a strick price of 68.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 15:55:01 for $0.22 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.18, and an ask price of $0.22. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 66.85. View All Etsy options

Closest to current price Etsy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Etsy's future price is the expected price of Etsy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Etsy Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Etsy Backtesting, Etsy Valuation, Etsy Correlation, Etsy Hype Analysis, Etsy Volatility, Etsy History as well as Etsy Performance.
  
At this time, Etsy's Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is likely to rise to 17.92 in 2024, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is likely to drop 3.93 in 2024. Please specify Etsy's target price for which you would like Etsy odds to be computed.

Etsy Target Price Odds to finish over 55.44685

The tendency of Etsy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 55.45  in 90 days
 67.99 90 days 55.45 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Etsy to stay above $ 55.45  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Etsy Inc probability density function shows the probability of Etsy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Etsy Inc price to stay between $ 55.45  and its current price of $67.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.04 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Etsy will likely underperform. Additionally Etsy Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Etsy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Etsy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Etsy Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.9367.8170.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.1974.6077.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
66.6169.4972.37
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
89.3798.21109.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Etsy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Etsy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Etsy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Etsy Inc.

Etsy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Etsy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Etsy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Etsy Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Etsy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.57
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.04
σ
Overall volatility
4.97
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Etsy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Etsy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Etsy Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from fool.com: 1 Spectacular Growth Stock Down 77 percent to Buy Right Now

Etsy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Etsy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Etsy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Etsy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding140.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.2 B

Etsy Technical Analysis

Etsy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Etsy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Etsy Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Etsy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Etsy Predictive Forecast Models

Etsy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Etsy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Etsy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Etsy Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Etsy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Etsy Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Etsy Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from fool.com: 1 Spectacular Growth Stock Down 77 percent to Buy Right Now
When determining whether Etsy Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Etsy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Etsy Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Etsy Inc Stock:

Complementary Tools for Etsy Stock analysis

When running Etsy's price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Etsy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Etsy. If investors know Etsy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Etsy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.18)
Earnings Share
2.24
Revenue Per Share
22.435
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.043
Return On Assets
0.0883
The market value of Etsy Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Etsy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Etsy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Etsy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Etsy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Etsy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Etsy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Etsy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Etsy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.