Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 12.06

Ford Motor Company -- USA Stock  

USD 11.10  0.54  5.11%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance
 Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish below 12.06

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 11.10 30 days 12.06  near 1% close to 99%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay under $ 12.06  after 30 days from now is close to 99%. Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between its current price of $ 11.10  and $ 12.06  at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.53%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor Company has beta of -0.1073 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Ford Motor are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Ford Motor Company is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ford Motor Company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
> 99%
Odds to stay under $ 12.06  after 30 days
 Ford Motor Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.11
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.066725