Ford Motor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 8.99

F -- USA Stock  

USD 9.07  0.18  1.95%

Ford Motor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Ford Motor Company performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Ford Motor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ford Motor odds to be computed. Additionally see Ford Motor Backtesting, Ford Motor Valuation, Ford Motor Correlation, Ford Motor Hype Analysis, Ford Motor Volatility, Ford Motor History as well as Ford Motor Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Ford Motor Target Price Odds to finish over 8.99

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 8.99  in 30 days
 9.07 30 days 8.99 
ABOUT 90.54%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Ford Motor to stay above $ 8.99  in 30 days from now is about 90.54% (This Ford Motor Company probability density function shows the probability of Ford Motor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Ford Motor price to stay between $ 8.99  and its current price of $9.07 at the end of the 30-day period is under 4%.
Taking into account the 30 trading days horizon, Ford Motor Company has beta of -0.324 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Ford Motor are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Ford Motor Company is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Ford Motor is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Ford Motor Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.09
β
Beta against DOW=0.32
σ
Overall volatility
=0.44
Ir
Information ratio =0.09

Ford Motor Alerts and Suggestions

Ford Motor generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
Ford Motor has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Ford Motor has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its interest payments
About 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Codina Francisco N of 00 shares of Ford Motor subject to Rule 16b-3

Ford MotorPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out3.14%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.60
Short Percent Of Float3.52%
Float Shares3.91B
Shares Short Prior Month121.55M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day33.51M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month35.45M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield6.29%
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