Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    F000001V0M -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,973  79.00  4.17%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual European Best Ideas performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,973 30 days 1,973  ABOUT 6.56%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 6.56% (This Old Mutual European Best Ideas probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual European Best Ideas has beta of -1275.1944 suggesting as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Old Mutual European Best Ideas are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Old Mutual is expected to outperform its benchmark. In addition to that Old Mutual European Best Ideas has an alpha of 581.965 implying that it can potentially generate 581.965% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =581.96
    β
    Beta against DOW=1,275
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =900.57
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.21

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions
    The fund retains about 8.56% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing money flow index and other technical indicators.
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