Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F000001V0M -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,941  5.00  0.26%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual European Best Ideas performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,941 30 days 1,941  ABOUT 16.36%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 16.36% (This Old Mutual European Best Ideas probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual European Best Ideas has beta of -0.3501 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Old Mutual are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Old Mutual European Best Ideas is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Old Mutual European Best Ideas has an alpha of 0.1535 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1535% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.15
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.35
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =992.17
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.013117

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual European generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 8.56% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Bollinger Bands module to use bollinger bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
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