Polar Capital (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F000002QJ0 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 23.68  0.23  0.98%

    Polar Capital probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Polar Capital Japan R USD Hdg performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Polar Capital time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Polar Capital odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Polar Capital Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     23.68 30 days 23.68  ABOUT 5.56%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Polar Capital to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 5.56% (This Polar Capital Japan R USD Hdg probability density function shows the probability of Polar Capital Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Polar Capital has beta of 0.5306 suggesting as returns on market go up, Polar Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Polar Capital Japan R USD Hdg will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Polar Capital Japan R USD Hdg has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Polar Capital Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.25
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.53
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =10.81
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.2

    Polar Capital Alerts

    Polar Capital Alerts and Suggestions

    The fund retains all of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
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