Aegon Intl (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F0000040Y3 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1.59  156.41  98.99%

    Aegon Intl probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Aegon Intl MG Property Ptfl A performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Aegon Intl time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aegon Intl odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Aegon Intl Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1.59 30 days 1.59  ABOUT 18.44%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon Intl to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 18.44% (This Aegon Intl MG Property Ptfl A probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Intl Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Aegon Intl MG Property Ptfl A has beta of -0.0029 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Aegon Intl are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Aegon Intl MG Property Ptfl A is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Aegon Intl MG is significantly underperforming DOW.
     Aegon Intl Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.0097
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0029
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =0.80
    Ir
    Information ratio =2.94

    Aegon Intl Alerts and Suggestions

    Aegon Intl MG is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Aegon Intl MG appears to be very risky and stock price may revert if volatility continues
    Aegon Intl MG may become a speculative penny stock
    The fund retains about 14.35% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Aegon IntlPrice Density Drivers

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