Aegon Intl (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    F000005OWB -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 202.00  1.00  0.50%

    Aegon Intl probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Aegon Intl time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aegon Intl odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Aegon Intl Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     202.00 30 days 202.00  ABOUT 9.68%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon Intl to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 9.68% (This Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Intl Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Aegon Intl has beta of 0.2043 suggesting as returns on market go up, Aegon Intl average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Aegon Intl Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.06
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.20
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =99.09
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.4

    Aegon Intl Alerts

    Aegon Intl Alerts and Suggestions
    The fund retains about 19.29% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.