Aegon Intl (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F000005OWB -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 194.00  2.00  1.02%

    Aegon Intl probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Aegon Intl time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aegon Intl odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Aegon Intl Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     194.00 30 days 194.00  CLOSE TO ZERO PERCENT
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon Intl to move above current price in 30 days from now is close to zero percent (This Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Intl Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B has beta of -0.0225 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Aegon Intl are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Aegon Intl Henderson Cautious Mgd B is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0473 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0473% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Aegon Intl Price Density 
    Alpha over DOW
    Beta against DOW=0.02
    Overall volatility
    Information ratio =0.36

    Aegon Intl Alerts and Suggestions

    Aegon Intl Henderson is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Aegon Intl Henderson generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 24.75% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Aegon IntlPrice Density Drivers