Aegon Intl (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F000005OWT -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 227.00  1.00  0.44%

    Aegon Intl probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Aegon Intl 8020 Defens Mgd Collection B performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Aegon Intl time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aegon Intl odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Aegon Intl Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     227.00 30 days 227.00  ABOUT 16.82%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Aegon Intl to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 16.82% (This Aegon Intl 8020 Defens Mgd Collection B probability density function shows the probability of Aegon Intl Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Aegon Intl has beta of 0.0861 suggesting as returns on market go up, Aegon Intl average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Aegon Intl 8020 Defens Mgd Collection B will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aegon Intl 8020 Defens Mgd Collection B has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Aegon Intl Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.09
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =117.10
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.53

    Aegon Intl Alerts

    Aegon Intl Alerts and Suggestions

    Aegon Intl 8020 generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 14.57% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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