Vanguard probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Vanguard US Eq Idx Common Cntrctul Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Vanguard time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
|Horizon||30 Days Login to change|
Vanguard Target Price Odds to finish over
|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to move above current price in 30 days|
|0.00||30 days||0.00||OVER 95.33%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard to move above current price in 30 days from now is over 95.33% (This Vanguard US Eq Idx Common Cntrctul Acc probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Vanguard US Eq Idx Common Cntrctul Acc has beta of -0.0964 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Vanguard US Eq Idx Common Cntrctul Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard US Eq Idx Common Cntrctul Acc has an alpha of 0.7483 implying that it can potentially generate 0.7483% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
Vanguard Price Density
|Alpha over DOW||=||0.75|
|Beta against DOW||=||0.1|