Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F00000SJT0 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,116  45.00  3.88%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Local Ccy EM Dbt U2 GBP Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,116 30 days 1,116  ABOUT 27.05%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 27.05% (This Old Mutual Local Ccy EM Dbt U2 GBP Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.4525 suggesting as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Local Ccy EM Dbt U2 GBP Acc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Local Ccy EM Dbt U2 GBP Acc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.35
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.45
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =611.15
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.32

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual Local has very high historical volatility over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 98.71% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
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