Vanguard (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F00000SK63 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 10,242  22.00  0.21%

    Vanguard probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Vanguard US Gov Bond Index GBP Hg Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Vanguard time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Vanguard Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10,242 30 days 10,242  ABOUT 23.48%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 23.48% (This Vanguard US Gov Bond Index GBP Hg Acc probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Vanguard US Gov Bond Index GBP Hg Acc has beta of -0.0057 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Vanguard US Gov Bond Index GBP Hg Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard US Gov Bond Index GBP Hg Acc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Vanguard Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0057
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =5,114
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.41

    Vanguard Alerts

    Vanguard Alerts and Suggestions

    Vanguard US Gov is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund retains about 96.9% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Pattern Recognition module to use different pattern recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
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