Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    F00000TG3D -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 1.34  0.01  0.75%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Global Eq AR A Hgd Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1.34 30 days 1.34  ABOUT 22.7%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 22.7% (This Old Mutual Global Eq AR A Hgd Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0165 suggesting as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Global Eq AR A Hgd Acc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Global Eq AR A Hgd Acc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.17
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0165
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =0.70
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.13

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual Global is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Old Mutual Global generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Old Mutual Global may become a speculative penny stock
    The fund retains about 19.42% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
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