Polar UK (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    F00000UHSY -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 25.35  0.03  0.12%

    Polar UK probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Polar UK Absolute Equity S Euro performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Polar UK time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Polar UK odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Polar UK Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     25.35 30 days 25.35  ABOUT 17.44%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Polar UK to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 17.44% (This Polar UK Absolute Equity S Euro probability density function shows the probability of Polar UK Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Polar UK has beta of 0.0824 suggesting as returns on market go up, Polar UK average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Polar UK Absolute Equity S Euro will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Polar UK Absolute Equity S Euro has an alpha of 0.0832 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0832% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Polar UK Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.08
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.08
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =13.45
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.04

    Polar UK Alerts

    Polar UK Alerts and Suggestions
    Polar UK Absolute generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 33.72% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
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