First State (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    F0GBR060S8 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 64.73  0.82  1.25%

    First State probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of First State Indian Subcontinent II performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify First State time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First State odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    First State Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     64.73 30 days 64.73  ROUGHLY 2.03%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of First State to move above current price in 30 days from now is roughly 2.03% (This First State Indian Subcontinent II probability density function shows the probability of First State Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, First State Indian Subcontinent II has beta of -0.1241 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding First State are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, First State Indian Subcontinent II is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First State Indian Subcontinent II has an alpha of 0.0353 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0353% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     First State Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.035263
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.12
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =25.80
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.17

    First State Alerts

    First State Alerts and Suggestions
    The fund retains about 8.41% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Additionally see Investing Opportunities. Please also try Pattern Recognition module to use different pattern recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.