First State probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of First State Indian Subcontinent II performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify First State time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First State odds to be computed. Additionally see Investing Opportunities.
|Horizon||30 Days Login to change|
First State Target Price Odds to finish over
|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to move above current price in 30 days|
|59.99||30 days||59.99||ABOUT 22.61%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of First State to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 22.61% (This First State Indian Subcontinent II probability density function shows the probability of First State Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .Assuming 30 trading days horizon, First State has beta of 0.1227 suggesting as returns on market go up, First State average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding First State Indian Subcontinent II will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First State Indian Subcontinent II has an alpha of 0.0988 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0988% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
First State Price Density
|Alpha over DOW||=||0.1|
|Beta against DOW||=||0.12|