Facebook Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 194.71

FB -- USA Stock  

USD 182.79  1.92  1.06%

Facebook probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Facebook performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Facebook time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Facebook odds to be computed. Additionally see Facebook Backtesting, Facebook Valuation, Facebook Correlation, Facebook Hype Analysis, Facebook Volatility, Facebook History as well as Facebook Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Facebook Target Price Odds to finish over 194.71

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 194.71  or more in 30 days
 182.79 30 days 194.71  ABOUT 6.38%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Facebook to move over $ 194.71  or more in 30 days from now is about 6.38% (This Facebook probability density function shows the probability of Facebook Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Facebook price to stay between its current price of $ 182.79  and $ 194.71  at the end of the 30-day period is about 36.54%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Facebook has beta of 0.5213 suggesting as returns on market go up, Facebook average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Facebook will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2239 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2239% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Facebook Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.22
β
Beta against DOW=0.52
σ
Overall volatility
=8.86
Ir
Information ratio =0.15

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About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

FacebookPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.75%
Short Percent Of Float0.90%
Float Shares2.38B
Shares Short Prior Month18.76M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day14.81M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month17.1M
Date Short InterestApril 30, 2019
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