First Citizens Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 437.91
| FCNCA Stock | USD 1,623 55.39 3.53% |
Closest to current price First long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
First |
First Citizens Target Price Odds to finish over 437.91
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 437.91 in 90 days |
| 1,623 | 90 days | 437.91 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Citizens to stay above $ 437.91 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This First Citizens BancShares probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Citizens BancShares price to stay between $ 437.91 and its current price of $1622.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.24 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Citizens has a beta of 0.74. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Citizens average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding First Citizens BancShares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First Citizens BancShares has an alpha of 0.1482, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Citizens Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Citizens
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Citizens BancShares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Citizens' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Citizens Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Citizens is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Citizens' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Citizens BancShares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Citizens within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.74 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 60.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
First Citizens Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Citizens for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Citizens BancShares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 First Citizens paid $ 1.64 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: First Citizens Bank Provides 50 Million to Refinance Los Angeles Medical Office Building |
First Citizens Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Citizens' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Citizens' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 992 M |
First Citizens Technical Analysis
First Citizens' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Citizens BancShares. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Citizens Predictive Forecast Models
First Citizens' time-series forecasting models is one of many First Citizens' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Citizens' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Citizens BancShares
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Citizens for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Citizens BancShares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 67.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 First Citizens paid $ 1.64 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: First Citizens Bank Provides 50 Million to Refinance Los Angeles Medical Office Building |
Check out First Citizens Backtesting, First Citizens Valuation, First Citizens Correlation, First Citizens Hype Analysis, First Citizens Volatility, First Citizens History as well as First Citizens Performance. Note that the First Citizens BancShares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Citizens' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Citizens' price analysis, check to measure First Citizens' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Citizens is operating at the current time. Most of First Citizens' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Citizens' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Citizens' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Citizens to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals |
Is First Citizens' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Citizens. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Citizens listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.061 | Dividend Share 3.89 | Earnings Share 784.46 | Revenue Per Share 523.407 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.986 |
The market value of First Citizens BancShares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Citizens' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Citizens' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Citizens' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Citizens' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Citizens' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Citizens is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Citizens' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.