First Eagle Gold Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 14.66
| FEGIX Fund | USD 26.47 0.33 1.26% |
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First Eagle Target Price Odds to finish below 14.66
The tendency of First Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.66 or more in 90 days |
| 26.47 | 90 days | 14.66 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Eagle to drop to $ 14.66 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Eagle Gold probability density function shows the probability of First Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Eagle Gold price to stay between $ 14.66 and its current price of $26.47 at the end of the 90-day period is over 95.41 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon First Eagle Gold has a beta of -0.27. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Eagle are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Eagle Gold is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First Eagle Gold has an alpha of 0.255, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). First Eagle Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for First Eagle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Eagle Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Eagle Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Eagle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Eagle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Eagle Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Eagle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.69 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
First Eagle Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Eagle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Eagle Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated-1.0 ten year return of -1.0% |
First Eagle Technical Analysis
First Eagle's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Eagle Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Eagle Predictive Forecast Models
First Eagle's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Eagle's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Eagle's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Eagle Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Eagle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Eagle Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated-1.0 ten year return of -1.0% |
Check out First Eagle Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Hype Analysis, First Eagle Volatility, First Eagle History as well as First Eagle Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.