Fossil Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 20.91

FOSL -- USA Stock  

USD 13.13  0.12  0.92%

Fossil probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Fossil Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Fossil time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Fossil odds to be computed. Additionally see Fossil Backtesting, Fossil Valuation, Fossil Correlation, Fossil Hype Analysis, Fossil Volatility, Fossil History as well as Fossil Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Fossil Target Price Odds to finish over 20.91

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 20.91  or more in 30 days
 13.13 30 days 20.91 
NEAR 1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Fossil to move over $ 20.91  or more in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Fossil Group probability density function shows the probability of Fossil Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Fossil Group price to stay between its current price of $ 13.13  and $ 20.91  at the end of the 30-day period is about 19.24%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Fossil has beta of 0.5625 suggesting as returns on market go up, Fossil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Fossil Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3451 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3451% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Fossil Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.35
β
Beta against DOW=0.56
σ
Overall volatility
=2.97
Ir
Information ratio =0.10

Fossil Alerts and Suggestions

Fossil Group has very high historical volatility over the last 30 days
Fossil Group has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
Over 113.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from technewsobserver.com: Bogle Investment Management L P DE Boosts Holdings in Fossil Group Inc - TechNewsObserver

FossilPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out29.97%
Short Percent Of Float59.22%
Float Shares46.24M
Shares Short Prior Month13.48M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.23M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
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