Fidelity Advisor Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 40.4

FPQIX -- USA Fund  

USD 41.36  0.03  0.07%

Fidelity Advisor probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Fidelity Advisor 529 Small Cap performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Fidelity Advisor time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Fidelity Advisor odds to be computed. Additionally see Fidelity Advisor Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Fidelity Advisor Correlation, Fidelity Advisor Hype Analysis, Fidelity Advisor Volatility, Fidelity Advisor History as well as Fidelity Advisor Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Fidelity Advisor Target Price Odds to finish over 40.4

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 40.40  in 30 days
 41.36 30 days 40.40 
about 69.48
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelity Advisor to stay above $ 40.40  in 30 days from now is about 69.48 (This Fidelity Advisor 529 Small Cap probability density function shows the probability of Fidelity Advisor Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Fidelity Advisor 529 price to stay between $ 40.40  and its current price of $41.36 at the end of the 30-day period is about 52.95 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Fidelity Advisor has beta of 0.0615 suggesting as returns on market go up, Fidelity Advisor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Fidelity Advisor 529 Small Cap will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0672 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0672% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Fidelity Advisor Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.07
β
Beta against DOW=0.06
σ
Overall volatility
=0.65
Ir
Information ratio =0.039134

Fidelity AdvisorPrice Density Drivers

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