Golub Capital Bdc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.6

GBDC Stock  USD 15.83  0.14  0.88%   
Golub Capital's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Golub Capital BDC. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Golub Capital based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Golub Capital BDC over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Golub Capital's common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-15 at 10:45:59 for $1.05 and, as of today, has 31 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $1.1. The implied volatility as of the 19th of March is 32.11. View All Golub options

Closest to current price Golub long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Golub Capital's future price is the expected price of Golub Capital instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Golub Capital BDC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Golub Capital Backtesting, Golub Capital Valuation, Golub Capital Correlation, Golub Capital Hype Analysis, Golub Capital Volatility, Golub Capital History as well as Golub Capital Performance.
  
At present, Golub Capital's Price Book Value Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is expected to grow to 15.44, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 9.57. Please specify Golub Capital's target price for which you would like Golub Capital odds to be computed.

Golub Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 18.6

The tendency of Golub Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 18.60  after 90 days
 15.83 90 days 18.60 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Golub Capital to stay under $ 18.60  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Golub Capital BDC probability density function shows the probability of Golub Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Golub Capital BDC price to stay between its current price of $ 15.83  and $ 18.60  at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Golub Capital has a beta of 0.5. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Golub Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Golub Capital BDC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.069, implying that it can generate a 0.069 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Golub Capital Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Golub Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Golub Capital BDC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golub Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Golub Capital in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.9515.7616.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.8115.6216.43
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
14.9715.7816.58
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.2915.7017.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Golub Capital. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Golub Capital's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Golub Capital's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Golub Capital BDC.

Golub Capital Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Golub Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Golub Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Golub Capital BDC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Golub Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.50
σ
Overall volatility
0.44
Ir
Information ratio 0

Golub Capital Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Golub Capital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Golub Capital BDC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Golub Capital BDC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 15th of March 2024 Golub Capital paid $ 0.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Golub Capital BDC Hits New 12-Month High at 16.08 - MarketBeat

Golub Capital Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Golub Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Golub Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golub Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding170.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments136 M

Golub Capital Technical Analysis

Golub Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Golub Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Golub Capital BDC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Golub Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Golub Capital Predictive Forecast Models

Golub Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Golub Capital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Golub Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Golub Capital BDC

Checking the ongoing alerts about Golub Capital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Golub Capital BDC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Golub Capital BDC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 15th of March 2024 Golub Capital paid $ 0.07 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Golub Capital BDC Hits New 12-Month High at 16.08 - MarketBeat
When determining whether Golub Capital BDC offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Golub Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Golub Capital Bdc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Golub Capital Bdc Stock:
Check out Golub Capital Backtesting, Golub Capital Valuation, Golub Capital Correlation, Golub Capital Hype Analysis, Golub Capital Volatility, Golub Capital History as well as Golub Capital Performance.
Note that the Golub Capital BDC information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Golub Capital's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Golub Stock analysis

When running Golub Capital's price analysis, check to measure Golub Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golub Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Golub Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golub Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golub Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golub Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Golub Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golub Capital. If investors know Golub will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golub Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.984
Dividend Share
1.4
Earnings Share
1.82
Revenue Per Share
3.711
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
The market value of Golub Capital BDC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golub that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golub Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golub Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golub Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golub Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golub Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golub Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golub Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.