Genmab AS (Denmark) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1360.5
| GMAB Stock | DKK 2,008 22.00 1.08% |
Genmab |
Genmab AS Target Price Odds to finish over 1360.5
The tendency of Genmab Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above kr 1,360 in 90 days |
| 2,008 | 90 days | 1,360 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Genmab AS to stay above kr 1,360 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Genmab AS probability density function shows the probability of Genmab Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Genmab AS price to stay between kr 1,360 and its current price of kr2008.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 55.26 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Genmab AS has a beta of -0.6. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Genmab AS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Genmab AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Genmab AS has an alpha of 0.0848, implying that it can generate a 0.0848 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Genmab AS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Genmab AS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genmab AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genmab AS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genmab AS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Genmab AS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Genmab AS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Genmab AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Genmab AS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.6 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 71.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Genmab AS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Genmab Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Genmab AS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genmab AS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.3 B |
Genmab AS Technical Analysis
Genmab AS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Genmab Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Genmab AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Genmab Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Genmab AS Predictive Forecast Models
Genmab AS's time-series forecasting models is one of many Genmab AS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Genmab AS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Genmab AS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Genmab AS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Genmab AS options trading.
Check out Genmab AS Backtesting, Genmab AS Valuation, Genmab AS Correlation, Genmab AS Hype Analysis, Genmab AS Volatility, Genmab AS History as well as Genmab AS Performance. To learn how to invest in Genmab Stock, please use our How to Invest in Genmab AS guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for Genmab Stock analysis
When running Genmab AS's price analysis, check to measure Genmab AS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genmab AS is operating at the current time. Most of Genmab AS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genmab AS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genmab AS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genmab AS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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