Genworth Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.03
| GNW Stock | USD 5.79 0.02 0.34% |
Closest to current price Genworth long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Genworth |
Genworth Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 4.03
The tendency of Genworth Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 4.03 in 90 days |
| 5.79 | 90 days | 4.03 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Genworth Financial to stay above $ 4.03 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Genworth Financial probability density function shows the probability of Genworth Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Genworth Financial price to stay between $ 4.03 and its current price of $5.79 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.21 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Genworth Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Genworth Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Genworth Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Genworth Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genworth Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genworth Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genworth Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Genworth Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Genworth Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Genworth Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Genworth Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Genworth Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Genworth Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Genworth Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Genworth Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thinkadvisor.com: Genworth Seeks Ruling on Life Benefits After Family Found Dead |
Genworth Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Genworth Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Genworth Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genworth Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 474.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49 B |
Genworth Financial Technical Analysis
Genworth Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Genworth Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Genworth Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Genworth Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Genworth Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Genworth Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Genworth Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Genworth Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Genworth Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Genworth Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Genworth Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Genworth Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thinkadvisor.com: Genworth Seeks Ruling on Life Benefits After Family Found Dead |
Check out Genworth Financial Backtesting, Genworth Financial Valuation, Genworth Financial Correlation, Genworth Financial Hype Analysis, Genworth Financial Volatility, Genworth Financial History as well as Genworth Financial Performance. For more information on how to buy Genworth Stock please use our How to Invest in Genworth Financial guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Genworth Stock analysis
When running Genworth Financial's price analysis, check to measure Genworth Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genworth Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Genworth Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genworth Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genworth Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genworth Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Idea Optimizer Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio | |
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| AI Investment Finder Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm |
Is Genworth Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genworth Financial. If investors know Genworth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genworth Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 0.16 | Revenue Per Share 15.973 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.024 | Return On Assets 0.0029 |
The market value of Genworth Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genworth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genworth Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genworth Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genworth Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genworth Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genworth Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genworth Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genworth Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.