Alphabet Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 1095.06

GOOG -- USA Stock  

USD 1,104  11.29  1.03%

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alphabet Target Price Odds to finish below 1095.06

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 1,095  or more in 30 days
 1,104 30 days 1,095  ABOUT 20.19%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to drop to $ 1,095  or more in 30 days from now is about 20.19% (This Alphabet probability density function shows the probability of Alphabet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alphabet price to stay between $ 1,095  and its current price of $1103.6 at the end of the 30-day period is under 4%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Alphabet has beta of 0.1417 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Alphabet average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alphabet will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Alphabet is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Alphabet Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.22
β
Beta against DOW=0.14
σ
Overall volatility
=67.45
Ir
Information ratio =0.1

Alphabet Alerts and Suggestions

Alphabet generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
About 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

AlphabetPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.25%
Float Shares602.84M
Shares Short Prior Month2.12M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.61M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.46M
Date Short InterestApril 30, 2019
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