Alphabet Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 1314.63

GOOGL -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: December 31, 2019  

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Alphabet Target Price Odds to finish below 1314.63

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 1,315  or more in 30 days
 1,339 30 days 1,315 
about 89.88
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to drop to $ 1,315  or more in 30 days from now is about 89.88 (This Alphabet probability density function shows the probability of Alphabet Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Alphabet price to stay between $ 1,315  and its current price of $1339.39 at the end of the 30-day period is about 6.79 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Alphabet has beta of 0.1976 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Alphabet average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Alphabet will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1395 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1395% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Alphabet Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.14
β
Beta against DOW=0.20
σ
Overall volatility
=43.32
Ir
Information ratio =0.1

Alphabet Alerts and Suggestions

Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Alphabet exotic insider transaction detected

AlphabetPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.43%
Short Percent Of Float0.98%
Float Shares618.01M
Shares Short Prior Month2.59M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.25M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.32M
Date Short InterestNovember 15, 2019
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