GRUPO HERDEZ Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 2.14

GUZOF -- USA Stock  

USD 2.12  0.08  3.92%

GRUPO HERDEZ probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify GRUPO HERDEZ time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like GRUPO HERDEZ odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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GRUPO HERDEZ Target Price Odds to finish below 2.14

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 2.14  after 30 days
 2.12 30 days 2.14 
about 47.68
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of GRUPO HERDEZ to stay under $ 2.14  after 30 days from now is about 47.68 (This GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV probability density function shows the probability of GRUPO HERDEZ OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of GRUPO HERDEZ SAB price to stay between its current price of $ 2.12  and $ 2.14  at the end of the 30-day period is about 10.09 .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV has beta of -0.4249 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding GRUPO HERDEZ are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, GRUPO HERDEZ SAB DE CV is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. GRUPO HERDEZ SAB is significantly underperforming DOW.
 GRUPO HERDEZ Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=0.42
σ
Overall volatility
=0.08
Ir
Information ratio =0.09

GRUPO HERDEZ Alerts and Suggestions

GRUPO HERDEZ SAB is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
GRUPO HERDEZ SAB generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
GRUPO HERDEZ SAB has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years

GRUPO HERDEZPrice Density Drivers

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.05
Float Shares86.44M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.45%
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