Hmn Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.83
| HMNF Stock | USD 19.50 0.10 0.51% |
HMN |
HMN Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 22.83
The tendency of HMN Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 22.83 or more in 90 days |
| 19.50 | 90 days | 22.83 | about 1.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of HMN Financial to move over $ 22.83 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.16 (This HMN Financial probability density function shows the probability of HMN Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of HMN Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 19.50 and $ 22.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.36 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days HMN Financial has a beta of 0.5. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, HMN Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding HMN Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally HMN Financial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. HMN Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for HMN Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HMN Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HMN Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HMN Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. HMN Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the HMN Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold HMN Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of HMN Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.26 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
HMN Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of HMN Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for HMN Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| HMN Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 6th of March 2024 HMN Financial paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: HMN Financial First Quarter 2024 Earnings EPS US0.30 |
HMN Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of HMN Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential HMN Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HMN Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.2 M |
HMN Financial Technical Analysis
HMN Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. HMN Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of HMN Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing HMN Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
HMN Financial Predictive Forecast Models
HMN Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many HMN Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary HMN Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about HMN Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about HMN Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for HMN Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| HMN Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 6th of March 2024 HMN Financial paid $ 0.08 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: HMN Financial First Quarter 2024 Earnings EPS US0.30 |
Check out HMN Financial Backtesting, HMN Financial Valuation, HMN Financial Correlation, HMN Financial Hype Analysis, HMN Financial Volatility, HMN Financial History as well as HMN Financial Performance. For more detail on how to invest in HMN Stock please use our How to Invest in HMN Financial guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for HMN Stock analysis
When running HMN Financial's price analysis, check to measure HMN Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HMN Financial is operating at the current time. Most of HMN Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HMN Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HMN Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HMN Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is HMN Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HMN Financial. If investors know HMN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HMN Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 0.32 | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share 8.62 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
The market value of HMN Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HMN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HMN Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HMN Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HMN Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HMN Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HMN Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HMN Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HMN Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.