Home Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.86
| HOMB Stock | USD 23.27 0.84 3.74% |
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Home BancShares Target Price Odds to finish below 14.86
The tendency of Home Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.86 or more in 90 days |
| 23.27 | 90 days | 14.86 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Home BancShares to drop to $ 14.86 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Home BancShares probability density function shows the probability of Home Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Home BancShares price to stay between $ 14.86 and its current price of $23.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.26 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.64 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Home BancShares will likely underperform. Additionally Home BancShares has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Home BancShares Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Home BancShares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Home BancShares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Home BancShares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Home BancShares Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Home BancShares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Home BancShares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Home BancShares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Home BancShares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Home BancShares Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Home BancShares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Home BancShares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Home BancShares generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Home BancShares has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 6th of March 2024 Home BancShares paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: |
Home BancShares Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Home Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Home BancShares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Home BancShares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 202.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -226.4 M |
Home BancShares Technical Analysis
Home BancShares' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Home Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Home BancShares. In general, you should focus on analyzing Home Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Home BancShares Predictive Forecast Models
Home BancShares' time-series forecasting models is one of many Home BancShares' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Home BancShares' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Home BancShares
Checking the ongoing alerts about Home BancShares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Home BancShares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Home BancShares generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Home BancShares has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 68.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 6th of March 2024 Home BancShares paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: |
Check out Home BancShares Backtesting, Home BancShares Valuation, Home BancShares Correlation, Home BancShares Hype Analysis, Home BancShares Volatility, Home BancShares History as well as Home BancShares Performance. For information on how to trade Home Stock refer to our How to Trade Home Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Complementary Tools for Home Stock analysis
When running Home BancShares' price analysis, check to measure Home BancShares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Home BancShares is operating at the current time. Most of Home BancShares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Home BancShares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Home BancShares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Home BancShares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Home BancShares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Home BancShares. If investors know Home will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Home BancShares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 1.94 | Revenue Per Share 4.845 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
The market value of Home BancShares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Home that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Home BancShares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Home BancShares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Home BancShares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Home BancShares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Home BancShares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Home BancShares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Home BancShares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.