First State (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE0008374245 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 58.45  0.34  0.59%

    First State probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of First State Asian Growth III performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify First State time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First State odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    First State Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     58.45 30 days 58.45  ABOUT 18.34%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of First State to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 18.34% (This First State Asian Growth III probability density function shows the probability of First State Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, First State has beta of 0.0202 . This indicates as returns on market go up, First State average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding First State Asian Growth III will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally First State Asian Growth III has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     First State Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.04
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0202
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =29.80
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.11

    First State Alerts

    First State Alerts and Suggestions

    First State Asian is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund retains about 5.97% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
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