First State (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE0008374245 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 56.30  0.000001  0.00%

    First State probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of First State Asian Growth III performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify First State time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like First State odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    First State Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     56.30 30 days 56.30  ABOUT 26.95%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of First State to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 26.95% (This First State Asian Growth III probability density function shows the probability of First State Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, First State Asian Growth III has beta of -0.9026 . This indicates Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. First State Asian is significantly underperforming DOW.
     First State Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.03
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.9
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =28.03
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.19

    First State Alerts and Suggestions

    First State Asian is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund retains about 5.97% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    First StatePrice Density Drivers

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