Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE0032626693 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 15.50  0.52  3.25%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual European Equity A USD Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     15.50 30 days 15.50  ABOUT 9.65%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 9.65% (This Old Mutual European Equity A USD Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0247 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual European Equity A USD Acc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Old Mutual European is significantly underperforming DOW.
     Old Mutual Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.05
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0247
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =8.43
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.13

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual European is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund generated five year return of -3.0%
    Old Mutual European retains 98.31% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

    Price Density Drivers

    Old Mutual Health Indicators

    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
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