Merrion Balanced (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00B1FQCH09 -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 1.30  0.04  2.99%

    Merrion Balanced probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Merrion Balanced performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Merrion Balanced time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Merrion Balanced odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Merrion Balanced Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1.30 30 days 1.30  NEAR 1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Merrion Balanced to move above current price in 30 days from now is near 1% (This Merrion Balanced probability density function shows the probability of Merrion Balanced Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Merrion Balanced has beta of -0.0052 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Merrion Balanced are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Merrion Balanced is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Merrion Balanced has an alpha of 0.0196 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0196% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Merrion Balanced Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.019566
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0052
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =0.43
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.99

    Merrion Balanced Alerts

    Merrion Balanced Alerts and Suggestions

    Merrion Balanced is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Merrion Balanced generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Merrion Balanced may become a speculative penny stock
    The fund retains about 11.94% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Price Density Drivers

    Merrion Balanced Health Indicators

    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
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