GAM Star (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00B3CTGR43 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 13.80  0.30  2.13%

    GAM Star probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of GAM Star Japan Equity Instl USD Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify GAM Star time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like GAM Star odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    GAM Star Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     13.80 30 days 13.80  ABOUT 33.23%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of GAM Star to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 33.23% (This GAM Star Japan Equity Instl USD Acc probability density function shows the probability of GAM Star Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, GAM Star Japan Equity Instl USD Acc has beta of -0.0241 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding GAM Star are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, GAM Star Japan Equity Instl USD Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. GAM Star Japan is significantly underperforming DOW.
     GAM Star Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.17
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.02
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =8.54
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.24

    GAM Star Alerts and Suggestions

    GAM Star Japan is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    GAM Star Japan generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund generated-1.0 ten year return of -1.0%
    GAM Star Japan retains 99.65% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

    GAM StarPrice Density Drivers

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