UBS Global probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of UBS Global Emerging Markets Opp I x performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify UBS Global time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like UBS Global odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
|Horizon||30 Days Login to change|
UBS Global Target Price Odds to finish over
|Current Price||Horizon||Target Price||Odds to move above current price in 30 days|
|200.44||30 days||200.44||ABOUT 43.02%|
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of UBS Global to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 43.02% (This UBS Global Emerging Markets Opp I x probability density function shows the probability of UBS Global Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .Assuming 30 trading days horizon, UBS Global has beta of 0.0128 . This indicates as returns on market go up, UBS Global average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding UBS Global Emerging Markets Opp I x will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UBS Global Emerging Markets Opp I x has an alpha of 0.0362 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0362% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
UBS Global Price Density
|Alpha over DOW||=||0.036191|
|Beta against DOW||=||0.0128|