SWMC Small (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00B3X68X40 -- Ireland Fund  

    EUR 122.75  4.10  3.23%

    SWMC Small probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of SWMC Small Cap European A EUR performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify SWMC Small time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like SWMC Small odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    SWMC Small Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     122.75 30 days 122.75  ABOUT 21.24%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of SWMC Small to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 21.24% (This SWMC Small Cap European A EUR probability density function shows the probability of SWMC Small Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, SWMC Small Cap European A EUR has beta of -0.0528 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding SWMC Small are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, SWMC Small Cap European A EUR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. SWMC Small Cap is significantly underperforming DOW.
     SWMC Small Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.05
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =75.75
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.43

    SWMC Small Alerts and Suggestions

    SWMC Small Cap is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    SWMC Small Cap generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains about 37.56% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    SWMC SmallPrice Density Drivers

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