III UCITS (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00B87F4K15 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 102,674  3,607  3.39%

    III UCITS probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of III UCITS Credit Opportunities C2 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify III UCITS time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like III UCITS odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    III UCITS Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     102,674 30 days 102,674  ABOUT 33.06%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of III UCITS to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 33.06% (This III UCITS Credit Opportunities C2 probability density function shows the probability of III UCITS Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, III UCITS Credit Opportunities C2 has beta of -0.0687 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding III UCITS are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, III UCITS Credit Opportunities C2 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. III UCITS Credit is significantly underperforming DOW.
     III UCITS Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.19
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.07
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =41,865
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.12

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    III UCITS Credit is not yet fully synchronised with the market data

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