Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    IE00BFWH6491 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,184  32.00  2.63%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,184 30 days 1,184  ABOUT 8.27%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 8.27% (This Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc has beta of -0.0586 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Old Mutual are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc has an alpha of 0.0673 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0673% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.07
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.06
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =576.25
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.14

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions
    Old Mutual UK generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains 99.71% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.