Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BFWH6491 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,043  20.00  1.88%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,043 30 days 1,043  ABOUT 30.83%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 30.83% (This Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc has beta of -0.0209 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Old Mutual are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Old Mutual UK Alpha A GBP Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Old Mutual UK is significantly underperforming DOW.
     Old Mutual Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.13
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.02
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =597.38
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.24

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual UK is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Old Mutual UK generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains 99.71% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

    Old MutualPrice Density Drivers

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