New Capital (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BG6MV538 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 157.45  0.36  0.23%

    New Capital probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of New Capital Dynamic European Eq USD Ord performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify New Capital time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like New Capital odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
    Symbol:
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    New Capital Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     157.45 30 days 157.45  ABOUT 24.91%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of New Capital to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 24.91% (This New Capital Dynamic European Eq USD Ord probability density function shows the probability of New Capital Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, New Capital Dynamic European Eq USD Ord has beta of -0.1028 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding New Capital are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, New Capital Dynamic European Eq USD Ord is likely to outperform the market. Additionally New Capital Dynamic European Eq USD Ord has an alpha of 0.2126 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2126% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     New Capital Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.21
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.1
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =78.32
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.19

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    The fund retains 97.54% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Commodity Channel Index module to use commodity channel index to analyze current equity momentum.
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