FundLogic (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BGFB5267 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 1,144  2.04  0.18%

    FundLogic probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of FundLogic MS PSAM Glb Event UCITS R USD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify FundLogic time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like FundLogic odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    FundLogic Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,144 30 days 1,144  ABOUT 14.27%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of FundLogic to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 14.27% (This FundLogic MS PSAM Glb Event UCITS R USD probability density function shows the probability of FundLogic Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, FundLogic has beta of 0.0183 . This indicates as returns on market go up, FundLogic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding FundLogic MS PSAM Glb Event UCITS R USD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. FundLogic MS PSAM is significantly underperforming DOW.
     FundLogic Price Density 
    Alpha over DOW
    Beta against DOW=0.0183
    Overall volatility
    Information ratio =0.02

    FundLogic Alerts and Suggestions

    FundLogic MS PSAM is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    FundLogic MS PSAM generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains 98.03% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

    FundLogicPrice Density Drivers