Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BRTNQD39 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 10.67  0.32  2.91%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms U1 Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.67 30 days 10.67  ABOUT 46.54%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 46.54% (This Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms U1 Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms U1 Acc has beta of -0.1829 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Old Mutual are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms U1 Acc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms U1 Acc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Old Mutual Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.38
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.18
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.64
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.09

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual Eurp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Old Mutual Eurp generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Old Mutual Eurp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
    The fund retains about 5.89% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Price Density Drivers

    Old Mutual Health Indicators

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