Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    IE00BRTNQV11 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,701  35.00  2.10%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,701 30 days 1,701  ABOUT 13.53%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 13.53% (This Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0161 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.09
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0161
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =829.64
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.22

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions
    The fund retains about 5.89% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
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