Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

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Fund Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R
    IE00BRTNQV11 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,528  62.00  3.90%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,528 30 days 1,528  ABOUT 31.4%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 31.4% (This Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R has beta of -0.3255 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Old Mutual are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Old Mutual Eurp Ex UK Smlr Coms R has an alpha of 0.3547 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3547% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW    		=0.35
    β
    		Beta against DOW=0.33
    σ
    Overall volatility    		=769.92
    Ir
    		Information ratio =0.19

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual Eurp is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund retains about 5.89% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
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