Hermes Global (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

IE00BWTNM305 -- Ireland Fund  

USD 2.18  0.02  0.91%

Hermes Global probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Hermes Global Emerging Markets R USD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Hermes Global time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Hermes Global odds to be computed. Please also check Hermes Global Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Hermes Global Correlation, Hermes Global Hype Analysis, Hermes Global Volatility, Hermes Global History as well as Hermes Global Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Hermes Global Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 2.18 30 days 2.18  ABOUT 20.13%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Hermes Global to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 20.13% (This Hermes Global Emerging Markets R USD probability density function shows the probability of Hermes Global Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Hermes Global Emerging Markets R USD has beta of -0.076 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Hermes Global are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Hermes Global Emerging Markets R USD is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Hermes Global Emerging is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Hermes Global Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.05
β
Beta against DOW=0.08
σ
Overall volatility
=1.31
Ir
Information ratio =0.25

Hermes Global Alerts and Suggestions

Hermes Global generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The fund retains 95.72% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

Hermes GlobalPrice Density Drivers

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