Polar Capital (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    IE00BWX5D402 -- Ireland Fund  

    GBp 1,029  0.00  0.00%

    Polar Capital probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Polar Capital European Ex UK I performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Polar Capital time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Polar Capital odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Polar Capital Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     1,029 30 days 1,029  ABOUT 12.04%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Polar Capital to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 12.04% (This Polar Capital European Ex UK I probability density function shows the probability of Polar Capital Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Polar Capital has beta of 0.0363 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Polar Capital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Polar Capital European Ex UK I will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Polar Capital European Ex UK I has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Polar Capital Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.02
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0363
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =518.18
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.45

    Polar Capital Alerts

    Polar Capital Alerts and Suggestions
    Polar Capital generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    The fund retains 99.83% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.