Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BYM85152 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 11.54  0.30  2.53%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Global Equity A USD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     11.54 30 days 11.54  ABOUT 13.31%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 13.31% (This Old Mutual Global Equity A USD probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0869 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Global Equity A USD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Global Equity A USD has an alpha of 0.0068 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0068% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.006838
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.09
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.24
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.27

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions

    Old Mutual Global is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    Old Mutual Global generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
    Old Mutual Global has high historical volatility and very poor performance
    The fund retains 98.07% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities

    Price Density Drivers

    Old Mutual Health Indicators

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