Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over

    IE00BYM85152 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 12.28  0.04  0.32%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Global Equity A USD performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
     Time Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
    Refresh Odds

    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     12.28 30 days 12.28  ABOUT 10.92%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 10.92% (This Old Mutual Global Equity A USD probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0381 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Global Equity A USD will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Global Equity A USD has an alpha of 0.0694 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0694% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.07
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0381
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.23
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.24

    Old Mutual Alerts

    Old Mutual Alerts and Suggestions
    The fund retains 98.07% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities
    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Commodity Channel Index module to use commodity channel index to analyze current equity momentum.