Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BYVJRD56 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 10.19  0.04  0.39%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.19 30 days 10.19  ABOUT 30.3%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 30.3% (This Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.0066 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Old Mutual average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     Old Mutual Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.29
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0066
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =6.03
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.11

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    Old Mutual Gold is not yet fully synchronised with the market data

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