Old Mutual (Ireland) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    IE00BYVJRD56 -- Ireland Fund  

    USD 10.17  0.29  2.94%

    Old Mutual probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Old Mutual time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Old Mutual odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Old Mutual Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     10.17 30 days 10.17  ABOUT 45.17%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Old Mutual to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 45.17% (This Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc probability density function shows the probability of Old Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Old Mutual has beta of 0.9732 . This indicates Old Mutual Gold Silver I USD Acc market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Old Mutual is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Old Mutual Gold is significantly underperforming DOW.
     Old Mutual Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.43
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.97
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =4.95
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.2

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    Old Mutual Gold is not yet fully synchronised with the market data

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