India First (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    INDIAFIRSTLI -- India Fund  

    INR 17.32  0.01  0.06%

    India First probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of India First Life Debt 1 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify India First time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like India First odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    India First Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     17.32 30 days 17.32  ABOUT 12.33%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of India First to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 12.33% (This India First Life Debt 1 probability density function shows the probability of India First Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, India First Life Debt 1 has beta of -0.0829 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding India First are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, India First Life Debt 1 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally India First Life Debt 1 has an alpha of 0.0212 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0212% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
     India First Price Density 
     
          
    Current Price   Target Price   
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.021226
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.08
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =8.79
    Ir
    Information ratio =0.62

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    The fund retains about 9.61% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

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