India First (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

    INDIAFIRSTLI -- India Fund  

    INR 17.35  0.04  0.23%

    India First probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of India First Life Debt 1 performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify India First time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like India First odds to be computed. Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis.
    Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    India First Target Price Odds to finish over

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
     17.35 30 days 17.35  ABOUT 14.55%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of India First to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 14.55% (This India First Life Debt 1 probability density function shows the probability of India First Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
    Assuming 30 trading days horizon, India First has beta of 5.0E-4 . This indicates as returns on market go up, India First average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding India First Life Debt 1 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally India First Life Debt 1 has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW
     India First Price Density 
          Price 
    α
    Alpha over DOW
    =0.0049
    β
    Beta against DOW=0.0005
    σ
    Overall volatility
    =8.91
    Ir
    Information ratio =3.91

    India First Alerts

    India First Alerts and Suggestions

    India First Life is not yet fully synchronised with the market data
    The fund retains about 9.61% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

    Price Density Drivers

    India First Health Indicators

    Please also check Risk vs Return Analysis. Please also try Chance of Distress module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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