Indian Oil (India) Probability of Target Price Finishing Over Current Price

IOC -- India Stock  

INR 131.05  3.10  2.31%

Indian Oil probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Indian Oil Corporation Limited performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Indian Oil time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Indian Oil odds to be computed. Please also check Indian Oil Backtesting, Indian Oil Valuation, Indian Oil Correlation, Indian Oil Hype Analysis, Indian Oil Volatility, Indian Oil History as well as Indian Oil Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Indian Oil Target Price Odds to finish over

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above current price in 30 days
 131.05 30 days 131.05  ABOUT 90.82%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Indian Oil to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 90.82% (This Indian Oil Corporation Limited probability density function shows the probability of Indian Oil Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) .
Assuming 30 trading days horizon, Indian Oil Corporation Limited has beta of -0.5927 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Indian Oil are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Indian Oil Corporation Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Indian Oil Corporation Limited has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Indian Oil Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.11
β
Beta against DOW=0.59
σ
Overall volatility
=5.25
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Indian Oil Alerts

Indian Oil Alerts and Suggestions

Indian Oil Limited generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
The company has accumulated 642.43B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 51.6 indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Indian Oil Limited has Current Ratio of 0.78 indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due.
On December 20, 2018 Indian Oil paid 6.75 per share dividend to its current shareholders

Price Density Drivers

Indian Oil Health Indicators

Trailing Annual Dividend Rate11.50
Float Shares2.14B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.82M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month14.18M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield8.69%
Please also check Indian Oil Backtesting, Indian Oil Valuation, Indian Oil Correlation, Indian Oil Hype Analysis, Indian Oil Volatility, Indian Oil History as well as Indian Oil Performance. Please also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing money flow index and other technical indicators.
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