International Paper Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.54
| IP Stock | USD 34.43 0.02 0.06% |
Closest to current price International long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
International |
International Paper Target Price Odds to finish below 45.54
The tendency of International Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 45.54 after 90 days |
| 34.43 | 90 days | 45.54 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of International Paper to stay under $ 45.54 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This International Paper probability density function shows the probability of International Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of International Paper price to stay between its current price of $ 34.43 and $ 45.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.78 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon International Paper has a beta of 0.69. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, International Paper average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding International Paper will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally International Paper has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. International Paper Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for International Paper
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Paper. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of International Paper's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
International Paper Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. International Paper is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the International Paper's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold International Paper, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of International Paper within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
International Paper Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of International Paper for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for International Paper can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| International Paper generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 International Paper paid $ 0.4625 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Millennium Partners, L.P. UK Regulatory Announcement Form 8.3 - Smith plc |
International Paper Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of International Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential International Paper's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. International Paper's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 349.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
International Paper Technical Analysis
International Paper's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. International Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of International Paper. In general, you should focus on analyzing International Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
International Paper Predictive Forecast Models
International Paper's time-series forecasting models is one of many International Paper's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary International Paper's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about International Paper
Checking the ongoing alerts about International Paper for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for International Paper help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| International Paper generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of March 2024 International Paper paid $ 0.4625 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Millennium Partners, L.P. UK Regulatory Announcement Form 8.3 - Smith plc |
Check out International Paper Backtesting, International Paper Valuation, International Paper Correlation, International Paper Hype Analysis, International Paper Volatility, International Paper History as well as International Paper Performance. To learn how to invest in International Stock, please use our How to Invest in International Paper guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for International Stock analysis
When running International Paper's price analysis, check to measure International Paper's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy International Paper is operating at the current time. Most of International Paper's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of International Paper's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move International Paper's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of International Paper to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is International Paper's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of International Paper. If investors know International will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about International Paper listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Dividend Share 1.85 | Earnings Share 0.86 | Revenue Per Share 54.529 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of International Paper is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of International that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of International Paper's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is International Paper's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because International Paper's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect International Paper's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between International Paper's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if International Paper is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, International Paper's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.