Iteris Probability of Target Price Finishing Above 5.02

ITI -- USA Stock  

USD 6.21  0.07  1.14%

Iteris probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Iteris performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Iteris time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Iteris odds to be computed. Please also check Iteris Backtesting, Iteris Valuation, Iteris Correlation, Iteris Hype Analysis, Iteris Volatility, Iteris History as well as Iteris Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Iteris Target Price Odds to finish below 5.02

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 5.02  or more in 30 days
 6.21 30 days 5.02 
ABOUT 51.47%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Iteris to drop to $ 5.02  or more in 30 days from now is about 51.47% (This Iteris probability density function shows the probability of Iteris Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Iteris price to stay between $ 5.02  and its current price of $6.21 at the end of the 30-day period is about 31.74%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, Iteris has beta of 0.5888 . This indicates as returns on market go up, Iteris average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Iteris will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1209 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1209% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Iteris Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.12
β
Beta against DOW=0.59
σ
Overall volatility
=1.28
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Iteris Alerts and Suggestions

The company reported last year revenue of 100.25M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (7.81M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 38.61M.
ITERIS INC has about 35.42M in cash with (3.99M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.88.
Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from Andrew Schmidt: Iteris exotic insider transaction detected

IterisPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out2.51%
Short Percent Of Float2.55%
Float Shares39.29M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day143.18k
Shares Short Prior Month1.44M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month226.06k
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
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