Kao Corporation Stock Chance of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 38.80

KAOCF Stock  USD 38.80  0.00  0.00%   
Kao's future price is the expected price of Kao instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Kao Corporation performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Kao Backtesting, Kao Valuation, Kao Correlation, Kao Hype Analysis, Kao Volatility, Kao History as well as Kao Performance.
  
Please specify Kao's target price for which you would like Kao odds to be computed.

Kao Target Price Odds to finish over 38.80

The tendency of Kao Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 38.80 90 days 38.80 
about 78.81
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Kao to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 78.81 (This Kao Corporation probability density function shows the probability of Kao Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Kao Corporation has a beta of -0.27. This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Kao are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Kao Corporation is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Kao Corporation has an alpha of 0.0443, implying that it can generate a 0.0443 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Kao Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Kao

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kao Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kao's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.000.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.000.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
37.0537.9338.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
38.8038.8038.80
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Kao. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Kao's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Kao's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Kao Corporation.

Kao Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Kao is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Kao's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Kao Corporation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Kao within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite-0.27
σ
Overall volatility
1.05
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Kao Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Kao for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Kao Corporation can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kao Corporation generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

Kao Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Kao Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Kao's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kao's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding473.9 M

Kao Technical Analysis

Kao's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Kao Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Kao Corporation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Kao Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Kao Predictive Forecast Models

Kao's time-series forecasting models is one of many Kao's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Kao's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Kao Corporation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Kao for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Kao Corporation help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Kao Corporation generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 62.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Check out Kao Backtesting, Kao Valuation, Kao Correlation, Kao Hype Analysis, Kao Volatility, Kao History as well as Kao Performance.
Note that the Kao Corporation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kao's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Complementary Tools for Kao Pink Sheet analysis

When running Kao's price analysis, check to measure Kao's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kao is operating at the current time. Most of Kao's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kao's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kao's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kao to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Kao's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kao is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kao's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.